Original broadcast 9/17/25
Presented by Peraton & Carahsoft
In modern warfare, commanders have long relied on the predictability of kinetic effects: when a missile is launched or artillery fires, the outcome is largely measurable and assured. Tom Afferton, President of the Cyber Mission Sector at Peraton, argues that cyber, electronic warfare, and information operations must be elevated to that same standard of reliability. At TechNet Augusta, he explained how non-kinetic effects can become as trusted as traditional firepower and what it will take to get there.
Afferton describes non-kinetic operations—cyber, EW, and information—as powerful tools, but ones that historically have been less predictable than kinetic weapons. Commanders want to know that when they request a specific effect, it will occur at a specific time, in a specific place, and deliver a specific outcome. For non-kinetic operations to achieve that standard, the military must strengthen its connective tissue: the flow of data across domains and between security levels.
Data provenance is central to this transformation. Commanders must understand not only the data they rely on but also where it originated, how it was processed, and who interacted with it. Without clear provenance, trust in the data—and therefore in the effects generated from it—breaks down. Afferton notes that building this trust must extend to the tactical edge, where operators in disconnected or degraded environments still need confidence in their information and tools.
Artificial intelligence is a natural fit for this model. Afferton highlights how AI-enabled tools can help analysts understand the information environment, build target audience analysis, design campaigns, and measure outcomes—all at a speed that human analysts alone cannot achieve. Importantly, AI also allows operators to assess whether an information operation or cyber effect achieved the commander’s intent, closing the loop on reliability.
Yet Afferton is careful to stress that AI is not about replacing people. Instead, it should be viewed through the lens of human–machine teaming. AI can take on routine, repetitive tasks, allowing analysts to focus on higher-order challenges. The principle, he explains, is “mission first, ethics always.” AI must be applied responsibly, with humans retaining ultimate decision-making authority to ensure outcomes are lawful, ethical, and aligned with the mission.
Afferton also emphasizes the importance of designing with the operator in mind. Too often, technology is developed in isolation and then handed to warfighters who must figure out how to use it. Peraton has adopted a different approach, embedding operators into development teams and putting engineers side by side with users to observe day-in-the-life operations. This ensures the solutions delivered are intuitive, field-ready, and effective in real-world conditions.
Partnership is another essential ingredient. Afferton sees a role for both traditional defense contractors and non-traditional innovators, including small businesses and academia. Some of the most promising algorithms and AI tools have originated in university research, later refined and scaled by industry. By co-creating solutions with diverse partners, the defense community can accelerate innovation and expand the talent pipeline of developers who understand both technology and mission needs.
For commanders, the ultimate goal is simple: non-kinetic effects must become as reliable and predictable as kinetic ones. To achieve that, the military must ensure data provenance, enable edge operations, integrate AI responsibly, and design with operators in mind. Industry, academia, and government must work together to deliver solutions that warfighters can trust.
Afferton’s vision reflects a broader shift in defense strategy. As adversaries increase their reliance on information warfare and cyber operations, the U.S. cannot afford for its non-kinetic capabilities to remain less reliable than traditional weapons. By elevating their predictability, commanders will be able to integrate non-kinetic effects seamlessly into operational plans, making them as central to success as missiles or tanks.
The path forward requires a combination of technology, policy, and culture change. But Afferton is confident that with the right focus and partnerships, the U.S. can close the gap and achieve information dominance. As he puts it, delivering trusted, predictable non-kinetic effects is not optional—it is essential for success in future conflicts.