Original Broadcast Date: 05/17/2026

Presented by EY

Amy Jones says government leaders have a unique opportunity to shape how artificial intelligence transforms the public sector over the next five years, but doing so will require strategic thinking, strong governance and a clear understanding of the rapidly evolving AI landscape. During an interview on Fed Gov Today, Jones discusses the launch of The Four Futures of AI, a special series presented by EY that explores how artificial intelligence could reshape government operations by 2030.

Jones, EY’s public sector AI lead, explains that the idea for the project begins with conversations EY has already been having with clients around future scenario planning. She says organizations across industries are trying to understand how they should prepare for different possible AI outcomes at a time when technological change is accelerating rapidly.

What makes the public sector different, Jones says, is that government organizations are not simply reacting to AI developments. Instead, they are actively helping shape them.

“We went back and we said, you know, there’s a really unique opportunity for public sector,” Jones says. “Public sector is really setting the foundation with the policy decisions, the investments and the infrastructure to inform the outcomes.”

That idea becomes the foundation for The Four Futures of AI. Rather than predicting a single outcome, the series presents four different scenarios that explore how AI adoption and innovation could evolve between now and 2030. Jones says the framework is designed to help agencies think strategically about both opportunities and risks while identifying what they can and cannot control.

The first scenario, “growth,” reflects a continued and steady evolution of artificial intelligence technologies. Jones explains that AI advancement is unlikely to hit a sudden stopping point or dramatic cliff. Instead, she expects technology to continue progressing steadily while gradually transforming how organizations operate.

Another scenario, “transform,” imagines a future where AI becomes deeply embedded across nearly every process within organizations. In that environment, agencies fundamentally rethink how they manage data, process information and make decisions. Jones describes this scenario as representing a major operational overhaul driven by AI integration throughout government systems and workflows.

The third scenario, “constraint,” explores the possibility that outside events or internal pressures could slow AI adoption. Jones says resource limitations, risk concerns or other disruptions could create a more cautious environment that limits the pace of AI expansion.

The final scenario, “collapse,” focuses on what happens if only a small number of major companies dominate the AI market. Jones says this could reduce the level of competition and distribution currently seen across the broader AI ecosystem and create major supply chain implications.

Jones emphasizes that the four scenarios are not meant to serve as exact predictions. Instead, she says they provide a practical framework for leaders trying to think more critically about the future.

“This is not an exhaustive list,” Jones says. “It’s really meant to be more thoughtful framework by which to approach it.”

One of the biggest challenges agencies face, according to Jones, is simply keeping pace with the speed of innovation. She says the AI innovation cycle is moving faster than many organizations can realistically absorb, especially as new policies, procurement requirements and global developments continue to emerge.

Jones points to the growing number of government policy announcements surrounding AI procurement and regulation as examples of how quickly the environment is shifting. Those policy decisions influence how industry invests in AI technologies, how data centers are built and how broader supply chains evolve.

“There’s so many different players sitting at the table, and the rules are changing and evolving constantly,” Jones says.

Because of that uncertainty, Jones says organizations need a strong strategic foundation that can guide decision-making even as market conditions and technologies change. She believes agencies that focus only on reacting to the latest AI developments risk becoming overwhelmed by the pace of change.

Instead, she encourages leaders to establish clear long-term objectives and governance structures that help maintain focus regardless of how quickly the technology landscape shifts.

“What we like to see with our clients is conversations about the bigger picture and the strategy so that you can always come back to that goal,” Jones says.

Jones also stresses that data remains the foundation for successful AI adoption. Before agencies can fully benefit from advanced AI systems, they need reliable data environments and strong governance processes to support future innovation.

Throughout the conversation, Jones presents AI not simply as a technology trend, but as a strategic challenge that will shape the future of government operations, infrastructure and public sector decision-making for years to come.