Presented by EY
In our previous episode, we explored the slow and steady climb of efficiency, but what if the climb isn't slow? What if it’s a vertical launch? In the second episode of The Four Futures of AI, we enter the "Transform" scenario. Hosted by Francis Rose, this episode explores a future where artificial general intelligence (AGI) erases the boundaries of what is currently possible, reinventing government as we know it.
Rather than simply helping civil servants do paperwork faster, the "Transform" future envisions a world where AI solves the energy crisis, cures diseases, and rewrites the laws of physics. Experts in this episode discuss the critical shift from public-facing chatbots to fully autonomous "agentic" systems—AI capable of initiating workflows, making decisions, and autonomously completing tasks. Through cinematic storytelling, this episode breaks down the profound implications of AGI across four key domains:
The Agentic State and Reinvented Public Services
The episode begins by shifting the paradigm from reactive AI to proactive, agentic systems. In this future, government ceases to rely on simple chatbots and moves toward AI that can autonomously pull records, flag inconsistencies, and complete entire workflows without human prompting. Experts discuss what the "Agentic State" looks like, where AI systems act as co-pilots and orchestrators that fundamentally change how agencies serve the public and manage resources.
The Scientific Renaissance
As the episode delves into the public sector's role in scientific discovery, it highlights how the convergence of high-performance computing, AI, and quantum supercomputing will completely transform problem-solving. From accelerating the cataloging of proteins from 40 years to just two years, to empowering patients with superhuman medical advisors, AI becomes a catalyst for an unprecedented scientific renaissance. The chapter also explores the physical world, detailing how autonomous cargo aircraft, 18-wheelers, and fully integrated smart transit systems will reshape our supply chains and urban infrastructure.
National Security and the Global Arms Race
With such profound technological power at play, the race to out-innovate and out-compete strategic adversaries like China and Russia becomes critical. In the Transform future, national security relies on AI to drastically compress acquisition timelines—taking military capabilities from concept to fielding in two years instead of thirty. The episode explores the battlefield of the future, where soldiers are assigned personal AI agents that learn their behavior over decades, synchronizing efforts and synthesizing massive amounts of intelligence in real-time.
The Labor Crisis and the New Economic Reality
The episode concludes by confronting the most daunting question of the Transform scenario: what happens to the workforce? Experts grapple with the possibility of a future where 70% to 80% of jobs are eliminated by AGI by the year 2040. If AI can perform the vast majority of white-collar and analytical tasks, society is forced to rethink the social contract. This chapter dives into the profound economic disruption this will cause, exploring potential government interventions like Universal Basic Income (UBI), massive job reskilling initiatives, and the ultimate question of how human beings will find purpose and earn a living in an AI-dominated world.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Guests Appearing in this Episode:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Guests Appearing in this Episode:
- Francis Rose, Host
- Jim Bryson, Co-Chair, AI Advisory Council, Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration
- Ryan Doherty, Principal, Government & Public Sector Technology Consulting, EY
- Ken Dircks, Infrastructure & Transportation Solution Lead, EY
- Dennis Eger, Senior OSINT Advisor, Army
- Dario Gil, Undersecretary for Science, DOE
- Jennifer Huddleston, Senior Fellow in Technology Policy, Cato Institute
- Amy Jones, Principal, EY
- Dave Larrimore, Former CTO and CAIO, DHS
- Frank Lee, Defense Sector Lead, EY
- Dawn Meyerriecks, Former Deputy Director for Science and Technology, CIA
- Felipe Millon, Public Sector Go to Market, OpenAI
- Brian Peretti, Former CTO and CAIO, Treasury Department
- Dru Rai, CIO, State of New York
- Mark Roberts, Manager, Artificial Intelligence Engineering, EY
- Paul Rodrigues, Chief AI Officer, National Security Group, Microsoft
- Bruce Schneier, Lecturer in Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School
- Anh Selissen, CIO, Texas Department of Transportation
- Nishant Shah, Senior Advisor for Responsible AI, State of Maryland
- Alan Shark, Associate Professor, Schar School for Policy and Government at GMU
- Nicol Turner Lee, Director, Center for Technology Innovation, Brookings Institution
- Rep. James Walkinshaw, Congressman (D), Virginia
- Rep. Rob Wittman, Congressman (R), Virginia